Market Commentary May 23, 2019

Market: Algo’s and Trade Selector Signal (TSS) theory. Out-trading price-action-time-visibility and reading TSS theory are on the docket hereabouts for the next few weeks. Let me ramble for a little.

To visit the stock market at 3 PM on Friday afternoon is like walking into a casino. As most speculation denizens suspect, stock markets like to “give away a small to get a lot.”  

The clever players - if there is such a person, so ignorant which, by the way, are most gamblers of statistics, will concentrate activity throughout the hours with vast numbers of players are arriving.  

While a vast majority of people are packing up to leave at the conclusion of a weekend, it is in the casino’s huge interest to see that playing machines do not pay off as much on the Sunday around checkout period. Mind you that this may not happen; however, there is a gambling scenario theory for you to contemplate.

Unrestricted by a gambling commission, last week market was a dandy for professional investors as well as traders alike. The significant indices were run-up on Thursday session. The pros were able to cover with lower prices for underlying stock index securities on Friday session.  

Would not it be helpful to have your private “magic algorithm?”  Virtually without consideration to price levels. Hey, write a trading system of your own and make a decision the long and short of it. Hooray, the “Walter Mitty-ness” of it, golly?

In real life expressions, it would be like “Purchase a house while everyone is buying as well and keep the house till the buying frenzy break down.”  Then, “Dump the house close to the top market prices”  once For Sale signs begin to appear throughout the neighborhood.

This is not different to the On-Balance-Volume method utilized by Joseph Granville although the dilemma is to be handled effectively within the short-term - By the way, one needs to hunker in front of a trading platform and watch "the tape" (computer screen) whole trading session long.

It would be gratifying to apply to change statistical relationships, however, now comes the dilemma:  Managing the modifications and inserting them into a trading decision flow chart, and next testing decision flow chart in the real world environment - This week trading session seems like a right time for such “system testing scenario.”

System trading is filled with time problems.  For instance, if one is trading anything positioned on a price moving average, the market can change, and you will only notice it following the now inverted moving average which has destroyed all your gains/profits and possibly some more - TSS system does not use any moving averages at all.

Therefore the question is: is there a way to Plug & Play using a “Bayesian Model,” which will see more dispassionately at specific statistical relationships while “a guessing-ahead lot better?”  Yeh, right. Exactly how much dole do you fancy to spend programming and testing what may or may not work and take years to develop the appropriate algorithms?   

So, a more worthwhile pursuit is optimizing my personal “TSS patterns.”  Which means looking at the market action while doing some writing/reading for an hour and then spending 30-minutes exercising. Working on my next lifetime project - Aeroponics, and doing what adds to quality to my life, which is sure to have a much higher personal return than all the day slave landia trading.