Market Commentary of The Commodity Market, November 2018

This Commodity Market Commentary covers various topics and understanding of commodity market activity and engaging information for an astute trader and investor, of international markets by demonstrating how interconnected the economies of nations have become.

November 8, 2018: The latest decline in crude oil prices might have been overlooked by many investors and traders who have been more concerned with the stock market; however, West Texas Intermediate crude oil hit the smallest level since early this year on Wednesday (Nov 7).

During the last three weeks, crude oil has cracked a several of essential Mean Support lines $70.90, $68.70, and $66. The Key Resistance $67.50 will now act as major resistance, including the significant previous Mean Support lines.

The breakdown follows after crude oil completed Oil Rally $76.20 hit out new highs in on October 3 this year, escalating the odds that this commodity could have noted a top at least in the intermediate-term. 

Nevertheless, it has at this point moved into completion Oil Dip $61.40 and approached what should be a significant Mean Support $59 (Stage 3), so there is a likelihood that at least a portion of the latest harm might be mitigated with a swift bounce. A decline below $59, though, and we might then find a retracement all the way down closer to $55 (Stage 4) and Major Key Support $49 (Stage 5).

And so the Gold-Oil ratio ought to continue to be solidly in favor of Gold, thus count on the ratio to be expanded over time.  Which means, the price of Yellow metal will continue to outshine crude oil for quite some time.

November 1, 2018: This year commodity prices have been driven by many factors, including rising US interest rates, supply disruptions, an appreciation of the US Dollar, financial market pressures in some EM's (emerging market) and EMDEs (developing economies), and most recent growing trade tensions between significant economies.

The energy sector prices rose 3% in the third quarter of 2018 alone, and consequently are greater than 40% higher than similar time frame in 2017, together with sharp increases in crude oil, natural gas, and coal. 

Typically the non-energy commodity sector decreased 7% within the third quarter of 2018. Metals prices fell almost 10% on sluggish global demand, along with worries concerning the link between the ongoing US-China trade dispute. However, Gold is poised to take off big-time as global economic and geopolitical problems are looming.

Agricultural commodity prices dropped almost 7%, the most significant single quarter decline ever since the year of 2011 fourth quarter. A variety of factors have led to weakness, including plenty of supplies for the majority of oilseeds as well as grains (except for wheat), trade tensions, which in turn impacted many agricultural prices (mainly soybeans). And also EMDE foreign currency depreciation - particularly the Brazilian Real - Stay tuned as we move into the end of the year. 

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